Syria — the actors, agitators, and the victims
A Syrian civil defense volunteer performs ritual sunset prayers next to the site of a building that collapsed following reported regime air strikes in the rebel-held town of Arbin, in the besieged Eastern Ghouta region on the outskirts of the capital Damascus, on February 6, 2018. Photo by ABDULMONAM EASSA — AFP/Getty Images
It would be farfetched to say that the Syrian civil war was worth it, it was not. There are multiple actors involved, each vying for an outcome that will only benefit themselves. They include the multitude of militias fighting in Syria, Iran, Russia, the Gulf States, Israel, the US and the wider west. These actors have their own agendas in Syria and each could care less about the impact of these political agendas on the lives of the millions of civilians perishing in this protracted war. The sad outcome of over half a decade of war will be the status quo before the war began. Assad will remain in power, Russia and Iran are now empowered and will play a dominating role in Syria and MENA and the millions of civilians displaced will have to rebuild their lives from scratch. None of what happened in Syria was necessary.
— the actors
The Syrian civil war began in March of 2011 when protestors took to the streets in Damascus and Aleppo. Of note, these protests were preceded by an arrest of a teenage boy and his friends for graffiti. Like most demonstrations, most notably in Hong Kong, at first these protestors called for the release of political prisoners and democratic reforms but later turned into wider calls for the removal of President Bashar al-Assad. Between March and July of 2011 there were many incidents of violence by the protestors and the government responded with an overreaction and dozens of protestors were killed and jailed. In typical Arab fashion, Assad put the blame on Israel and “external actors” to forward their propaganda and dismissed the protests all together.
The Syrians — the regime and the dozens of factions on the ground
Between April 2011 and June 2012 there were sporadic armed insurgencies throughout Syria but lacked a central command center. Officially the civil war began in July of 2012 when a group of Syrian security forces defected and formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Their implicit goal was to remove Assad from power. This period of the war showed classic characteristics of a civil war. It was not long until others began infiltrating this insurgency and the lines between extremists and legitimate revolutionaries were blurred. Over the next couple of years there were multiple attempts at ceasefires and brokered peace plans, but all proved fruitless. Currently there are about 25 kurdish parties and dozens of militias with allegiances to a plethora of different interests.
The Americans..
American involvement in the Syrian crisis is peculiar at best and extremely damaging at worst. From the onset of the conflict, US policy toward Syria has been murky and confusing. The Obama administration’s redline rhetoric and Trump’s so called anti-war campaign have forced our allies in the region to be cautious of American promises made to them. Except in the fight against Daesh (IS), the US policy in Syria has been arming specific groups and providing economic and humanitarian aid.
When IS was officially pronounced defeated — what defeat and victory means in the Syria is in the eye of the beholder — but certainly they have lost the influence they had between 2013–2016 — the US decided that its role in the Syria was no longer needed. This couldn’t be far from wrong. When it comes to Syria policy, the US is very lukewarm. President Trump touts that he wants to get out of the Middle East and yet he has no issue with sending thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia, the same week that he greenlighted a Turkish invasion. I believe the Trump administration understands that most in the US — outside of policy and government folks — do not know who the Kurds are. I believe this administration is a one-track-minded administration, in which they cannot perceive the complex situation of Syria and long term ramifications of impulsive behavior to appease a base and distract from domestic woes.
There are many speculations as to why Trump decided to pull a very small faction of soldiers, less than 200 total, who were not engaged in any real combat or at risk of any danger. They were simply there to deter Erdogan from deploying troops into NE Syria. In comparison to the number of troops deployed to Kabul, Baghdad, Seoul and Berlin, the forces in Syria can hardly be characterised as a real significant quantity of US deployment. Moreover, those forces that believed last week they were coming home, this weekend learned they are actually being deployed to Iraq, most likely to counteract the increasing presence of Iranian influence, namely the the Popular Mobilisation Forces ( al-Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbī or the PMF).
The Russians..
The Russian intervention was the result of an invitation by the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. The Russians are using this conflict as an opportunity to play a more significant role in the Middle East. Similarly to the US-Russian cold war, this renewed cold war, via proxies, is proving to be just as destabilizing for the region as previous attempts of world powers vying to to gain influence in the region. Its stated goals in Syria includes ridding the region of Daesh fighters and to help bring back stability and ensure the protection of Syria’s “legitimate” president, Bashar al-Saad. Russia is not known to be a benevolent player and clearly harbor ulterior motives such as a Russian-friendly Syria, if the war ever ends.
Many experts exclaim that Assad was facing an end and that the SFA/SDF fighters were making significant gains and taking large swathes of government held territory. Coupled with the emergence of Daesh and superior Russian air support, many of the gains were reversed including in Aleppo and Palmyra. Russia has also played a significant role at the UNSC, vetoing UNSC mandates including response to alleged chemical attacks by the Assad regime. Russia appear to be one of the biggest winners in this 8 year long war.
The Iranians
While Iran was involved, first covertly and then openly, in the conflict, their real presence was more significant with the emergence of IS. IS is a predominantly Salifist Sunni group that deem the Shia and the Kurds as “infidels” and therefor it would make sense for Iran to be involved in this arena. Iranian back PMF forces have been at the center of the eradication of Daesh in Iraq and were pivotal in their fight against Daesh in Syria.
Iran, like its ally Russia, also have ulterior motivations for their involvement in the crisis. While Syria serves as important political and military strategic interests, they are more interested in an Iranian friendly Iraq. That is not to say that the Iranians do not want a friendly Assad regime and could use its influence in the region as a bargaining chip should talks resume over their nuclear program. Iran has welcomed Trump’s decision to leave Syria and in my opinion is waiting out this administration. Should the US electorate, elect a new president, I believe Iran will use its influence in both Syria and Iraq as a tool.
— the agitators
Reading about the Syrian conflict will make most people rip their hair out. There are many on the ground who have legitimate reasons for revolution but outside agitators have taken this opportunity to further sow chaos, death and destruction.
Saudi Arabia and the GCC
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is an multilateral organization comprised of the main gulf states, have largely played the role of outside agitators. At the dawn of the conflict, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and to some degree Egypt, immediately decided to throw its support for the rebels. There is a long history of the Saudi’s and its client states such as the UAE and Bahrain to throw their previous allies under the bus, think Saddam and Gaddafi. They began arming rebel groups with little regard for who they were arming so long as the fighters satisfied a main requirements: they were not friendly to Iran. They armed fighters of the Al-Nusra front — a violent faction of Al-Qaeda who later joined the ranks and leadership of Daesh.
Daesh
One of the biggest benefactors of the war in Syria are the Daesh or as known in the west as Islamic State. Why world powers ignored the fact that Al-Qaida and other extremist groups were operating and disguising themselves as rebels is beyond me. But it is not surprising that IS took hold in Syria and Iraq. There was and is an unfettered flow of weapons and money into Syria and Iraq and they took advantage of it. If it was not IS, it would have been another group. They are the agitators because while Daesh is against monarch rule and foreign presence in Islamic holy lands, they under the leadership of al-Baghdadi also sought to establish a pan-islamic caliphate. The revolutions that sprung up in MENA (Middle East North Africa)were not to create a caliphate but to end the rules of corrupt authoritarian regimes.
Hezbollah and Israel
While the Hezbollah and Israeli conflict have largely remained between the two in Lebanon and the Golan Heights, both groups have sought to push forward their own agendas in Syria. Israel, at will and without consequences, continue to bomb sites within Syria. Hezbollah, with help from Iran, is attempting to use the war to increase its power in Lebanon but has also recently been accused of sowing discord between the Druze communities of the Suwayda and Golan Heights. Both of these agitators, by their involvement, risk the conflict to spread like wildfire throughout the Middle East and they have certainly not helped the crisis in Syria.
— the victims
The victims are the hundreds of thousands killed, the millions displaced, and the million of children who will grow up living with the trauma for their entire lives. On 23 April 2016, the United Nations and Arab League Envoy to Syria put out an estimate of 400,000 that had died in the war. It is hard to get actual statistics of the casualties of the war and all sides consider the other sides as terrorists and therefore do not count them as civilian casualties. Over 1 millions Syrians have been forced to flee to neighboring Turkey and abroad. Another 6 million of refugees are displaced internally. This six million strong displaced peoples are the most vulnerable as they have no way to get out and for most, the fear of death from the skies or from hunger and disease is very real.
— Conclusion
So called experts, military commanders, and DC think-tank elites are all writing dozens of stories and essays on the cause of the crisis in Syria and who is responsible. There is very little objective analysis of the crisis. Most think tanks in DC and elsewhere are funded by the very same people they are supposed to hold accountable and the bias in their writing is fairly obvious. In my opinion the biggest culprit of the crisis in Syria can be chalked up to the small group of the global military industrial complex. In my discussions, I always bring up the fact that IS was not fighting with “IS made weapons.” They were fighting with Russian, US, Israeli, Iranian and European made weapons. I would say Saudi made weapons, but the Saudi’s do not make anything. They just rather buy billions of dollars of American made weapons and then distribute to their Wahabi Salifists extremists on the ground. I will be very surprised to find any of these so-called experts criticize the weapons manufacturers or be even critical of countries distributing them to fighters in MENA and elsewhere.
In the end, while the elites pretend to care about human rights, they are the ones exasperbating the civil war. In the middle are the millions of Syrians who are losing their homes, hundreds of thousands are losing their lives, and generations of Syrians will live with psychological and developmental issues. What is the most infuriating is that the civil achieved no ends. The US left Syria and allowed the Turks to remove their lifelong foes. The same people that fought against Assad are now fighting alongside him. Assad was not removed from power and does not look like he will be. What was the point of this war?
